Probability?

[varutia]

I don't think they doing this correctly. Having the kids on Tuesday really is not relevant at all to the problem.

The issue is like a flipping a coin, you get head or tail. You get to flip twice, since one of the outcome is decided already, the other outcome is 50/50.

If you use his stupid example you can split the time down to am/pm, then the probably goes up, split down to hour, bloody goes up again.

[Hiroki]

Varutia wrote

I don't think they doing this correctly. Having the kids on Tuesday really is not relevant at all to the problem.

Hiroki wrote

13/27

Can't argue with maths.. even when it's wrong

Varutia wrote

If you use his stupid example you can split the time down to am/pm, then the probably goes up, split down to hour, bloody goes up again.

Fkn Spot on Bevan.

[Kofn]

You probably don't want to hear it Var, but you keep implicitly imposing an order on the events.

If you flip a coin and it's heads, then the chance of the *next* toin coss being heads is 50/50.

If you flipped two coins and one of them was heads, the chance of both of them being heads is only 33%.

[Tenam]

I finally agree with the people saying it's 33%. However, I also agree with the people saying that it's poorly worded, or maybe purposefully so, which is just irritating.

So... I've got two kids...one is a boy, born on a Tuesday.

is completely irrelevant. If you only look at the last part of the question, you get the right answer to "What are the chances that I have two boys?"

It's like saying "Timmy is a murderer born to a horrible hag of a mother on a horrible Halloween night. Out of 16 classes in EQ, what are the chances that he would randomly pick warrior?" The first sentence isn't connected, even if it might seem like it.

[Vexo]

I finally agree with the people saying it's 33%. However, I also agree with the people saying that it's poorly worded, or maybe purposefully so, which is just irritating.

So... I've got two kids...one is a boy, born on a Tuesday.

is completely irrelevant. If you only look at the last part of the question, you get the right answer to "What are the chances that I have two boys?"

It's like saying "Timmy is a murderer born to a horrible hag of a mother on a horrible Halloween night. Out of 16 classes in EQ, what are the chances that he would randomly pick warrior?" The first sentence isn't connected, even if it might seem like it.

What?

You have to state that you have two kids. You have to state that one is a boy. You have to state that he is born on a Tuesday. Then you ask, what is the probability I have two boys. Non of it is irrelevant.

[Tenam]

Then why do you end up with 33% either way? Or if it's not 33%, stop toying with us and just tell us the answer. /mumble "jerk"

[Vexo]

Then why do you end up with 33% either way? Or if it's not 33%, stop toying with us and just tell us the answer. /mumble "jerk"

The answer is not 33% to the question asked. That probability is 13/27.

The critical part in achieving that value is realizing the 1/3 part though, that's why that is being discussed so heavily in this thread.

[Arrowmiss]

What if one was a Hermaphrodite?